Goods & Services Tax (GST) Malaysia: 2013-08-11

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

External environment poses key challenge to Malaysia's growth

Published: Monday August 12, 2013 MYT 12:00:00 AM

Updated: Monday August 12, 2013 MYT 6:49:57 AM

KUALA LUMPUR: Despite strong economic growth in recent times, the external environment remains a key challenge to Malaysia to maintain a positive growth in near-term.

Weak commodity prices, anemic global demand for electrical and electronic products and waning strength of emerging economies such as China and India will pose a challenge to an open economy including Malaysia.

Malaysian Rating Corp Bhd Chief Economist Nor Zahidi Alias said global economic uncertainties and jitters that surrounded the 13th general election were major factors that dragged Malaysia’s economy in the first half of the year. “At the same time, weak commodity prices dented the export sector and affected the headline growth,” he told Bernama.

Nor Zahidi said the situation was also being amplified by weaknesses in some emerging economies, including China, which is expected to experience a slower-than-expected growth of between 7% and 7.5% this year.

Nomura, in its latest global market research that focused on China, remarked that one percentage point drop in China’s gross domestic product would lower global growth outside the world’s second biggest economy with the hardest hit economies being in Asia.

The biggest casualty would be Hong Kong, with growth falling by one percentage point or more, it said.

The impact is also large on commodity-producing countries including Malaysia, Australia and those in Latin America despite being located much further away from China.

China is the world’s largest consumer of commodities including natural rubber and copper.

Standard Chartered Bank Regional head of research Edward Lee said there were many factors to affect long-term sustainable growth such as a stable macroeconomic environment. “Malaysia has been very successful in maintaining high and sustained growth. Naturally, the battle does not stop here,” he said.

However, inflationary pressure may start to kick in next year especially if the electricity tariff was adjusted and petroleum subsidy was further reduced, Nor Zahidisaid.

Lee said global food and oil prices have picked up recently and turned positive on a year-on-year basis.

“This may add to inflation although any impetus currently is expected to be moderate. We expect a full year inflation at about 2.1%,” he said.

Nor Zahidi said the price pressure would also come from the goods and services tax (GST) if it was implemented next year. “We view the impact of GST, if introduced next year, will be a one-off event, but its implication on consumer spending cannot be underestimated,” he said.

Lee expects further fiscal consolidation to take place in near-term for the Government to sustain its long-term fiscal position and to address rising household debts.

“Lending conditions may gradually tighten in some areas. For example, Bank Negarahas already introduced new micro prudential rules to address the high household debt,” he said.

The downward pressure on ringgit would also become a concern especially if outflows continue to increase following the US Federal Reserve’s intention to cutback bond purchases, said Nor Zahidi. “The concern may deepen if Malaysia’s current account surplus continue to shrink,” he said.

On the domestic side, the situation was less worrying as some imbalances such as high household debts may induce policymakers to implement measures that will moderate the pace of private consumption, Nor Zahidi added.

Malaysia’s current account surplus has narrowed to RM8.7bil in the first quarter 2013 from as high as RM40bil in the third quarter of 2008. Malaysia’s current account surplus has narrowed significantly over the last two years, reaching a 10-year low of 3.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) in Q1 2013 from over 10% of GDP in 2011.

The narrowing has been driven by a combination of weak exports, strong domestic demand and low commodity prices. – Bernama

Don’t ‘punish Malaysians’ with GST, Pua tells Najib

By Zurairi AR August 5, 2013

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 5 — DAP MP Tony Pua today cautioned Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak against “punishing Malaysians” by implementing the goods and services tax (GST) as the country’s deficit and sovereign debt balloon.

This comes as global rating agency Fitch Ratings revised Malaysia’s finances outlook from “Stable” to “Negative”, noting that the country’s debt rose to 53.3 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP) last year, and the deficit increased to 3.8 per cent of GDP.

“The question must be asked as to why is it that despite revenues increasing so ever healthily, an envy of many nations, the Barisan Nasional-led federal government has been completely helpless in getting out of the deficit rut,” the Petaling Jaya Utara MP asked in a statement.

Pua (picture) highlighted that Putrajaya’s revenue has increased from only RM93 billion in 2003 to an estimated RM209 billion in 2013, an increase of 125 per cent in just over a decade.

The revenue, Pua said, has been contributed mainly by state oil and gas company Petronas, which as at 2009 contributed up to RM426 billion to Putrajaya, and would have given RM260 billion more since then.

Despite the massive revenue, Pua claimed that Malaysia is still suffering from continuously rising deficit and debt as a result of wastage, leakages and corruption, and as such it could not be cured by imposing the GST.

Najib had stressed in a statement to financial wire Bloomberg recently that Putrajaya “still plans to reduce subsidies and broaden the tax base”, in response to the negative outlook presented by Fitch.

While Pua admitted that increasing taxes on every person and every product is the easiest way to reduce government deficit, the opposition lawmaker argued it would not solve the underlying structural rut in Malaysia’s finances.

He pointed out that high value-added taxes (VAT) in Greece, Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Italy — which are up to 23 per cent — did not save those countries from their severe financial crises.

“If the government continues to spend wastefully, run inefficiently and be embroiled in the cancer of cronyism and corruption, then no amount of taxes raised from the man-in-the-street will be able to prevent Malaysia from plunging into a crisis sooner or later,” Pua said.

According to the DAP national publicity chief, broadening the tax base will pose a hindrance to the many real structural reforms that he has suggested last week, including reducing reliance on hidden debts, and enforcing open and transparent dealings in procurements and privatisation contracts.

According to Bank Negara Malaysia, federal government debt currently stands at RM508.9 billion in the first quarter of 2013 compared to RM501.6 billion in the previous quarter.

Source: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/dont-punish-malaysians-with-gst-pua-tells-najib

DON'T use Fitch downgrade to negative as an EXCUSE to impose GST - Tony warns Najib

Monday, 05 August 2013 04:00

Written by Tony Pua

Dato’ Seri Najib Razak must not use the excuse of the Fitch Ratings’ revision of Malaysia’s outlook to negative to impose the Goods and Services Tax (GST).

According to Bloomberg, the Government has emailed a statement to reiterate that “Malaysia remains committed to trimming the deficit to 3 percent of gross domestic product by 2015 and won’t let state debt exceed 55 percent of GDP”, and at the same time, “it still plans to reduce subsidies and broaden the tax base”. This statement was made in response to Fitch Ratings revision of Malaysia’s outlook to negative.

We call upon the Datuk Seri Najib Razak not to punish Malaysians with a Goods and Services Tax (GST) for the wastages, leakages and corruption which has caused the Malaysian government to suffer from a record 15 continuous years budget deficit and sky-rocket federal government debt.

Resource rich but still in deficit: Contrast with S'pore

Unlike other resource-starved countries, Malaysia is blessed with revenue from rich natural resources. According to former Prime Minister, Tun Dr Mahathir himself, Petronas has contributed up to RM426 billion as at 2009, and that sum would have increased by another RM260 billion since. Given such extraordinary contributions from the sector, with more than RM60 billion in contributions annually in recent years, Malaysia should be enjoying annual record surpluses instead of suffering from a persistent budget deficit.

In fact, Tun Dr Mahathir himself, who is also the Petronas advisor, has asked in July 2009, “what did the government spend with the RM253.6 billion payment from the national oil company over the past six years” when his successor Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi was prime minister.

The above is reflected by the increase in Government revenue by leaps and bounds from only RM93 billion in 2003 to an expected RM209 billion in 2013. That is a massive increase of 125% over just a decade.

The question must be asked as to why is it that despite revenues increasing so ever healthily, an envy of many nations, the BN-led Federal Government has been completely helpless in getting out of the deficit rut. The situation has deteriorated to the revision of Malaysia’s credit rating outlook to negative, which if not met with the right policy responses, will result in a disastrous downgrade.

GST could not save Greece

The immediate policy by the Government it appears to be to “broaden the tax base” by implementing the much discussed GST. However, will GST help resolve the Federal Government’s deficit crisis? In the short term, of course it would. In fact, the easiest way to reduce the deficit for the Government is by increasing the taxes on every person and every product in this country. However, will such measures be just a “panadol” which give temporary relief, but fails to cure the underlying cancer in Malaysia’s public finances?

If GST is a cure, then Greece would never have gone “bankrupt”. Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Italy would not have been in financial crisis. The standard GST or value-added tax (VAT) rate in Greece is 23%. It is the same for Spain, Ireland, Portugal while it is 21% for Italy. Did the VAT or GST save these countries from a crisis arising from persistent deficits?

The answer is an obvious “no”. And if the GST couldn’t save all these nations from plunging into severe economic crisis, why should it be any different in Malaysia?

Postpone the crisis

The simple reason to the above is that the GST will only postpone a crisis by boosting the revenue of the Government. However, if the Government continues to spend wastefully, run inefficiently and be embroiled in the cancer of cronyism and corruption, then no amount of taxes raised from the man-in-the-street will be able to prevent Malaysia from plunging into a crisis sooner or later.

In fact, the more the Government collects from taxes, the more leakages there will be. This correlates directly with the fact that our country’s debts have continued to accelerate despite the massive increase in government revenues, particularly from the oil and gas sectors over the past decade.

Instead of the GST becoming the ‘reform’ measure, the attempt to broaden the tax base in will fact become the hindrance to the much needed real reforms of reducing the reliance of off-balance sheet financing or contingent liabilities, enforcing open and competitive tenders for all government procurement and privatisation contracts, as well as to increase transparency at all levels of the government’s budgeting processes to fight corruption.

If the Prime Minister really believes that the Fitch warning “is a concern that we share as a government and [the Government] would seek to address those concerns”, then he must heed our call in upcoming Budget and not impose the unnecessary burden of additional taxes on ordinary Malaysians, 85% of whom still do not earn enough to qualify to pay income taxes today.

Tony Pua is the DAP MP for PJ Utara

Full article: http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=140041:dont-use-fitch-downgrade-to-negative-as-an-excuse-to-impose-gst-tony-warns-najib&Itemid=2#ixzz2boAfvLG6

People will bear the brunt of ratings downgrade, says Anwar

By Syed Jaymal ZahiidAugust 12, 2013UPDATED: August 12, 2013 04:05 pm

Anwar says people will have to pay more for consumer goods once Putrajaya introduces the GST.PETALING JAYA, Aug 12 — Putrajaya will punish the average citizen with new taxes in its bid to stave off a ratings downgrade, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim alleged today, rather than cut spending and eliminate wastages.

Last Wednesday, international rating agency Fitch Ratings cut its outlook on Malaysia’s sovereign debt to “Negative”, citing gloomier prospects for reforms to tackle the country’s rising debt burden following a divisive election result this year.

Today, the opposition leader predicted that voters will soon be forced to cope with higher prices for consumer goods once Putrajaya rolls out the contentious goods and services tax (GST).

Anwar had in the past argued that the new tax scheme was unnecessary, saying much of the country’s high debt pile could be efficiently reduced by reining in corruption.

“When Fitch downgrade the rating it will make loans (to the government) higher... in the billions of ringgit so the government will move to cut spending and ultimately the people will bear the burden,” Anwar, once a finance minister and now adviser to opposition party PKR, told a press conference here.

“All these things can be dealt with if we cut corruption, implement better governance and financial management. But what do you do? You embark in new adventures like the GST and the minister will say no we don’t burden the people.

“You collect RM27 billion from the people and you say you don’t burden them,” he added.

Fitch’s revision from a stable outlook adds to concerns over Malaysia’s high debt pile at a time when the currency has been pressured by bond fund outflows and talk of the US Federal Reserve ending its easy monetary policy.

In its downgrade, Fitch had singled out the lack of political fortitude to see through necessary reforms.

“Prospects for budgetary reform and fiscal consolidation to address weaknesses in the public finances have worsened since the government’s weak showing in the May 2013 general election,” Fitch said in a statement.

This includes the need to introduce GST and cut subsidies to bring down its debt. Malaysia’s debt-to-GDP ratio currently stands at a worrying 53 per cent.

The opposition, however, had opposed the idea, insisting that the deficit can be reduced through prudent management and weeding out corruption.

Najib had downplayed the downgrade as a temporary setback that will be addressed in next year’s Budget.

Economists said Putrajaya now needs to send a strong message with Budget 2014 to dispel doubts about its intention to keep the economy on track and failure to deliver the necessary reforms to assuage outside observers such as Fitch may carry severe repercussions.

Meanwhile, the Fitch outlook downgrade appeared as other warning signs began surfacing over Malaysia’s slowing economy: slowing export growth, a falling trade surplus, and a ringgit at a three-year low against the US dollar.

It presents a dilemma for Najib who must now address soaring national debt — currently at 53 per cent of GDP, just under the 55 per cent ceiling — while needing to keep the economic engine room churning to avoid sending the country into a recession.

Source: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/people-will-bear-the-brunt-of-ratings-downgrade-says-anwar

GST in the spotlight again in Malaysia

Posted: 9:53 am, May 21, 2013 by editor

KUALA LUMPUR, May 21 : With the general election out of the way and Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak mandate renewed, the spotlight is back on the Goods and Services Tax, an important economic reform which previous administrations talked about but hesitated to push through.

The GST, which would widen the country’s revenue base and reduce its dependency on revenue from oil and commodities, was tabled in 2009. But it was repeatedly delayed for fear a new tax would turn voters off the Barisan Nasional coalition in the election.

Now that the general election is over, Minister in Prime Ministers Department Datuk Idris Jala, has hinted the GST is back on the table.

“It must be implemented as soon as Malaysians are ready to accept the mechanism,” he said last Friday, adding that GST at 7 per cent would bring in revenue of up to RM27 billion (S$11.2 billion) a year.

Currently, only 10 per cent of the country’s 12 million workforce pay income tax. Malaysia has a population of 28 million.

Economists, who see the GST as crucial to Malaysia’s economic reform, said it will be a test of Najib’s seriousness in pushing for change, especially since he has recently promised voters higher cash handouts in the future. “If these election promises are not accompanied by fiscal reforms such as the GST, it will be harder for the government to balance out its financial constraints in the long term,” Lee Heng Guie, chief economist of CIMB Investment Bank, told The Straits Times.

The GST will be closely watched, as it could also foreshadow how the government approaches policymaking in the next few years. The government has promised to cut subsidies and narrow its budget deficit, now running for almost 15 years.

At previous government briefings, Lee said, economists were told the GST rate would be between 4 and 5 per cent at initial implementation and would slowly rise to 7 per cent in the long run.

Singapore has a GST of 7 per cent, the same rate as Thailand’s value-added tax, while Australia has a GST of 10 per cent.

Malaysia’s opposition has said the GST would burden the working class by taxing all consumption, though the government has said essential items such as rice and cooking oil may be exempted.

GST critics said it is regressive as those who earn less would effectively use a larger portion of their income to pay for increased prices of goods and services. But Idris has said the government is committed in reducing corporate and personal tax rates to help cope with the new tax regime.

Maryann Tan, 36, a Web content developer, said the GST is inevitable as the country develops, but questioned if the new revenue would be spent wisely. “I’ll adjust my spending to cope with the GST,” she said, such as buying fewer imported goods. “My problem is, I don’t trust the government in spending the money.”

Economists expect Najib to announce a timeline for implementation when Parliament starts in one or two months, or in the Budget proposal this year.

“It is already widely expected to be implemented soon as preparations to educate companies and tax experts were already under way,” RAM Holdingschief economist Yeah Kim Leng told The Straits Times. “There is no reason why it should be delayed again.” – Singapore ST

Source: http://www.themalaysiantimes.com.my/gst-in-the-spotlight-again-in-malaysia/

Malaysia perlu model ekonomi jangka panjang

ARKIB : 10/08/2013

KUALA LUMPUR 9 Ogos - Malaysia perlu mengkaji semula pelaksanaan Model Baharu Ekonomi (MBE) untuk berjaya dalam jangka panjang, kata bekas Presiden dan anggota lembaga Dewan Perniagaan Amerika Malaysia (Amcham), Datuk Nicholas S. Zeffreys.

Beliau berkata, Malaysia juga perlu melakukan banyak perkara sekarang, yang pertama adalah pelaksanaan cukai barangan dan perkhidmatan (GST) yang ditangguhkan dan diharapkan akan dimasukkan ke dalam bajet akan datang.

"Malaysia tidak memperoleh hasil yang banyak tetapi lebih dalam perbelanjaan. Negara ini banyak bergantung kepada Petronas untuk membiayai 44 peratus daripada belanjawannya.

"Ini tidak baik untuk menjalankan negara berdasarkan pembiayaan syarikat. Oleh itu, GST dijangka membawa perubahan dalam hal itu," kata Zeffreys di sini, baru-baru ini.

Zeffreys merupakan antara anggota pasukan yang terlibat dalam pembentukan MBE.

Beliau juga berkata, Malaysia perlu menangani isu liberalisasi sektor perkhidmatan, yang dijangka menjadi bidang pertumbuhan besar pada masa akan datang.

"Ini sedang berlaku pada kadar yang amat perlahan kerana perlindungan dalam bidang tertentu," tambahnya,

Zeffreys berkata, pelaburan dari sektor swasta juga kurang daripada separuh berbanding 10 hingga 15 tahun lalu. - BERNAMA

Artikel Penuh: http://www.utusan.com.my/utusan/Ekonomi/20130810/ek_02/Malaysia-perlu-model-ekonomi-jangka-panjang#ixzz2bo7Lplv5
© Utusan Melayu (M) Bhd

Jom Shopping ala BR1M, tanggungjawab sebuah kerajaan

ARKIB : 04/08/2013

KERAJAAN Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) Selangor boleh memuji diri sendiri berikutan kemampuannya meneruskan program membantu rakyat kecil di negeri itu menjelang Aidilfitri ini. Program itu dipanggil Jom Shopping.

Tahun ini Kerajaan Selangor memperuntukkan RM2.8 juta untuk 28,000 keluarga menerima kupon bernilai RM100.

Dalam program itu, penerima yang kebanyakkannya ibu tunggal, warga emas dan orang kurang upaya dikumpulkan dan diberikan kupon untuk membeli barangan keperluan Aidilfitri di pusat membeli-belah terpilih.

Peserta program dipilih oleh ketua kampung, pengerusi persatuan penduduk dan ahli majlis. Kupon pula disampaikan oleh orang politik biasanya ADUN atau pegawai penyelaras bagi DUN di kawasan pembangkang. Memang hingar-bingar pusat beli-belah apabila 500 keluarga berbelanja serentak.

Media kerajaan negeri dan propakatan pembangkang pun mempromosi program Jom Shopping ini. Walaupun kerajaan negeri mengaku penerima bantuan melangkaui sokongan politik tetapi media mereka menonjolkan temu bual penerima yang memuji-muji bantuan dan keprihatinan kepimpinan pakatan pembangkang.

Jom Shopping bunyinya tak ubah seperti Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia (BR1M). Cuma nilai bantuan BR1M lebih tinggi iaitu RM500 untuk isi rumah dan RM250 untuk penerima bujang. Kerajaan Barisan Nasional (BN) kini pula dalam proses memperincikan jumlah penambahan bantuan yang bersesuaian.

Ini sebagaimana janji kerajaan BN dalam manifesto pilihan raya 2013 untuk menambah jumlah bantuan sehingga RM1,200 untuk isi rumah dan RM600 untuk golongan bujang dalam masa lima tahun ini. BR1M mahupun Jom Shopping memang tak banyak bezanya termasuk cara bantuan diberikan.

Cuma anehnya, politikus BN atau mana-mana NGO tidak kedengaran mengkritik apatah lagi mengecam bantuan Jom Shopping. Jom Shopping tidak lebih dianggap sebagai tanggungjawab rutin sebuah kerajaan untuk kesejahteraan rakyatnya.

Jauh sekali untuk mengutuk pemberian itu sebagai rasuah memancing undi. Mungkin tidak terfikir pun untuk menganggap bantuan Jom Shopping umpama memberi makan kepada haiwan. Juga tak perlu susah-susah mereka cipta 'fatwa' untuk memburuk-burukkan Jom Shopping.

Begitu juga tiada desakan agar orang politik tidak dilibatkan untuk menyampaikan bantuan itu. Penerimanya pula tidak diragukan walaupun mungkin berlaku pilih kasih atau ada penerima yang sepatutnya layak tercicir.

BR1M seperti Jom Shopping bukanlah kail yang boleh menambah pendapatan penerimanya tetapi memberi manfaat secara tidak langsung termasuk membantu merancakkan ekonomi setempat.

Jika mahu dicari masalah memang banyak. Bayangkan susah payah warga emas atau orang kurang upaya yang datang dari jauh hanya untuk digembirakan dengan barangan bernilai RM100. Apakah barang yang boleh dibeli dengan RM100? Adakah berbaloi?

Yang jelas Jom Shopping tidak dipolitikkan oleh pihak sebelah sini sebagaimana orang seberang sana begitu suka mempolitikkan BR1M. Nampaknya pihak sebelah sini tidak melulu panik dan ketakutan sokongan bakal merosot akibat bantuan Jom Shopping itu.

Sungguh, kaca mata yang digunakan untuk menilai bantuan itu sangat berbeza. Hanya kerana BR1M merupakan cetusan idea kerajaan BN, bantuan itu menjadi sesuatu yang berniat jahat dan penuh konspirasi.

Bagaimanapun sesebuah program itu akan dipuji melangit jika dibuat oleh kerajaan pakatan pembangkang. Seperti itulah dwi standard dan cara politik kita yang cenderung mengutamakan persepsi.

Terlalu kerap kita lebih mengutamakan suara minoriti. Jadi, tidak perlulah lagi mengikut rentak tari pembangkang dan kumpulan-kumpulan pendesaknya.

Rumusannya, lakukan yang terbaik untuk rakyat. Jangan sesekali ragu-ragu. Salah satu aspek penting mengapa sebuah negara perlu ada ialah untuk mewujudkan keamanan, ketenteraman dan kesejahteraan kepada rakyatnya. Dengan kata lain, menyediakan kehidupan yang selayaknya untuk rakyat.

Sebab itu, negara pun diberi mandat kekuasaan bahkan dana oleh rakyat agar rakyat dapat hidup selayaknya. Negara mesti wujud dan dirasakan kewujudannya. Sebab itu, jika dirasakan BR1M bermanfaat untuk kemaslahatan rakyat, teruskan dan lakukan tambah baik agar impaknya lebih menyeluruh.

Begitu juga, dalam program-program rakyat didahulukan lainnya. Jika cukai barangan dan perkhidmatan (GST) yang sudah lama tertangguh, bagus untuk rakyat mengapa bertangguh lagi hanya kerana mahu melayan suara kumpulan minoriti propembangkang?

Sama juga, Pelan Pembangunan Pendidikan Malaysia (PPPM). Jangan terganggu dengan tentangan Persekutuan Persatuan-persatuan Lembaga Pengurus Sekolah Cina Malaysia (Dong Zong), kumpulan yang sudah lama dikenal sebagai ultra kiasu.

Kewujudan kumpulan seperti Dong Zhong ini yang mendakwa PPPM akan menghapuskan bahasa Mandarin dan sekolah vernakular tidak perlu dilayan. Pandangan sempit pertubuhan ini hanya menjadikan keadaan bertambah serabut. Umum pun sudah mengetahui kumpulan ini sentiasa mahukan ekstra walaupun hak-hak dasar telah dipenuhi.

Sama ada BR1M mahupun Jom Shopping, kerajaan yang bertanggungjawab perlu yakin dengan apa yang dilakukan kepada rakyatnya. Dalam hal-hal tertentu terutama berkaitan dengan hak orang banyak, kerajaan bukan sahaja perlu tegas tetapi menggunakan segala kekuasaannya untuk mempertahankan hak itu.

Artikel Penuh: http://www.utusan.com.my/utusan/Rencana/20130804/re_11/Jom-Shopping-ala-BR1M,-tanggungjawab-sebuah-kerajaan#ixzz2bo6vludy

Impact of GST on the Man in the Street

Click on the image for larger displays

Source: http://www.mbam.org.my/mbam/images/MBJ4Q05pdf/@GST(76-78).pdf

Persekitaran Luar Kekal Cabaran Utama Kepada Malaysia Dalam Jangka Terdekat

Oleh Siti Radziah Hamzah

KUALA LUMPUR, 11 Ogos (Bernama) -- Meskipun mencatatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang kukuh sejak kebelakangan ini, persekitaran luar kekal menjadi cabaran utama kepada Malaysia untuk mengekalkan pertumbuhan positif dalam jangka masa terdekat.

Harga komoditi yang lemah, permintaan global yang perlahan untuk barangan elektrik dan elektronik serta kekuatan yang menyusut daripada ekonomi baru muncul seperti China dan India, akan memberi cabaran kepada sebuah ekonomi terbuka, termasuk Malaysia.

Ketua Pakar Ekonomi Malaysian Rating Corp Bhd Nor Zahidi Alias berkata ketidaktentuan ekonomi dunia dan kebimbangan yang menyelubungi Pilihan Raya Umum ke-13 adalah faktor utama yang mempengaruhi ekonomi Malaysia pada separuh pertama tahun ini.

"Pada masa yang sama, harga komoditi yang lemah menjejaskan sektor eksport dan mempengaruhi pertumbuhan," katanya kepada Bernama.

Beliau berkata keadaan itu juga diperkukuhkan dengan kelemahan dalam beberapa negara baru muncul termasuk China, yang dijangka mengalami pertumbuhan yang lebih perlahan daripada jangkaan antara tujuh peratus dan 7.5 peratus pada 2013.

Nomura dalam penyelidikan pasaran global terkini yang memberi tumpuan kepada China menyatakan bahawa penurunan satu mata peratusan dalam keluaran dalam negara kasar China akan mengurangkan pertumbuhan global di luar ekonomi kedua terbesar di dunia itu dengan ekonomi yang paling teruk terjejas adalah di Asia.

Ekonomi yang akan terjejas teruk ialah Hong Kong dengan pertumbuhan turun sebanyak satu mata peratusan atau lebih.

Kesan ini juga besar kepada negara-negara pengeluar komoditi termasuk Malaysia, Australia dan di Amerika Latin, walaupun terletak lebih jauh dari China.

China adalah pengguna komoditi terbesar dunia termasuk getah asli dan tembaga.

Ketua Penyelidikan Serantau Standard Chartered Bank Edward Lee berkata terdapat banyak faktor yang memberi kesan kepada pertumbuhan mampan ekonomi jangka panjang seperti persekitaran makroekonomi yang stabil.

"Malaysia telah menjadi sangat berjaya dalam mengekalkan pertumbuhan yang tinggi dan berterusan. Sememangnya, perjuangan tidak berhenti di sini," katanya.

Bagaimanapun, tekanan inflasi mungkin bermula pada tahun depan terutamanya jika tarif elektrik diselaraskan dan subsidi petroleum dikurangkan lagi, kata Nor Zahidi.

Lee berkata harga makanan dan minyak dunia telah meningkat baru-baru ini dan bertukar positif bagi asas tahun ke tahun.

"Ini boleh menambah kepada inflasi, walaupun sebarang dorongan kini dijangka sederhana. Kami menjangka inflasi tahun penuh pada kira-kira 2.1 peratus," katanya.

Nor Zahidi berkata tekanan harga juga akan datang daripada cukai barangan dan perkhidmatan (GST) jika ia dilaksanakan pada 2014.

"Kami berpendapat kesan GST, jika diperkenalkan tahun depan, akan menjadi satu keadaan sahaja tetapi implikasinya terhadap perbelanjaan pengguna tidak boleh dipandang ringan, " katanya.

Lee menjangka penyatuan fiskal terus berlaku dalam jangka masa terdekat bagi kerajaan untuk mengekalkan kedudukan fiskal jangka panjang serta menangani kenaikan hutang isi rumah.

"Syarat pinjaman mungkin diketatkan secara beransur-ansur di sesetengah bidang. Sebagai contoh, BNM telah memperkenalkan peraturan berhemat mikro yang baharu untuk menangani hutang isi rumah yang tinggi," katanya.

Tekanan ke atas ringgit juga akan menjadi kebimbangan terutamanya jika aliran keluar terus meningkat berikutan hasrat Rizab Persekutuan AS untuk mengurangkan pembelian bon, kata Nor Zahidi.

"Kebimbangan boleh bertambah jika lebihan akaun semasa Malaysia terus mengecut," katanya.

Bagi domestik, keadaan kurang membimbangkan walaupun sesetengah ketidakseimbangan seperti hutang isi rumah yang tinggi boleh menyebabkan penggubal dasar melaksanakan langkah-langkah yang akan menurun kadar penggunaan persendirian, kata Nor Zahidi.

Lebihan akaun semasa Malaysia telah berkurangan kepada RM8.7 bilion pada suku pertama 2013 daripada RM40 bilion pada suku ketiga 2008.

Lebihan akaun semasa Malaysia mengecil dengan ketara sejak dua tahun kebelakangan ini, mencapai paras rendah 10 tahun pada 3.7 peratus daripada KDNK pada suku pertama 2013 daripada lebih 10 peratus daripada KDNK pada 2011.

Pengurangan berkenaan didorong oleh gabungan eksport yang lemah, permintaan domestik yang kukuh dan harga komoditi yang rendah.

-- BERNAMA

Viewpoint: If GST is the cure, Greece wouldn’t have gone bankrupt

First Published:10:32am, Aug 05, 2013

Last Updated:10:32am, Aug 05, 2013

Opinion

Tony Pua

Datuk Seri Najib Razak must not use the excuse of the Fitch Ratings’ revision of Malaysia’s outlook to negative to impose the Goods and Services Tax (GST)

We call upon Datuk Seri Najib Razak not to punish Malaysians with a Goods and Services Tax (GST) for the wastages, leakages and corruption which has caused the Malaysian government to suffer from a record 15 continuous years’ budget deficit and sky-rocket federal government debt.

Unlike other resource-starved countries, Malaysia is blessed with revenue from rich natural resources. According to former Prime Minister, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad himself, Petronas has contributed up to RM426 billion as at 2009, and that sum would have increased by another RM260 billion since. Given such extraordinary contributions from the sector, with more than RM60 billion in contributions annually in recent years, Malaysia should be enjoying annual record surpluses instead of suffering from a persistent budget deficit.