Publication: NST
Date of publication: Aug 16, 2012
Section heading: Main Section
Page number: 018
Byline / Author: By Irwan Shah Zainal Abidin
ON Sept 28, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak
will table the budget for 2013, which is his fourth budget since he took the
helm in April 2009. The 2010 Budget was his first with the theme 1Malaysia,
Together We Prosper, followed by 2011 Budget (Transformation Towards a
Developed and High-Income Nation) and 2012 Budget (National Transformation
Policy: Welfare for the Rakyat, Well-being of the Nation).
The 2013 Budget, which is Malaysia's short-term
development plan, must be seen in the context of Malaysia's five-year economic
blueprint - the 10th Malaysia Plan (10MP) - which covers the years from 2011
till 2015. The 10MP incorporates both the way of thinking of the Government
Transformation Programme , which outlined the six (now seven) National Key
Result Areas and the New Economic Model (NEM). Under 10MP, 12 National Key
Economic Areas have been identified and are now being put under the Economic
Transformation Programme.
The 10MP, on the other hand, must be viewed in
light of the long-term development plan of the National Transformation Policy
(NTP), which spans the period from 2011 until 2020 and the fourth National
Outline Perspective Plan (NOPP). The NTP, which was announced during the 2012
Budget, will supersede the National Vision Policy, which began in 2001 and
ended in 2010, whereas the NOPP will replace the Third Outline Perspective
Plan, which covered the period from 2001 to 2010.
Acronyms aside, there are essentially two crucial
aims that the past three budgets were trying to achieve, that is, to manage the
increasing cost of living and to transform the economy to become a developed
and high-income country in 2020. Therefore, I would expect strategies,
programmes, and initiatives crafted in the 2013 Budget to again be directed
towards achieving these two aims.
As for the aim of managing the soaring cost of
living, it is important that the strategies and programmes formulated for this
coming budget be less of a temporary, quick-fix and one-off aid basis. Instead,
the government should find ways to increase the purchasing power of the people
and stimulate domestic consumption in such a way that can reap the highest
multiplier effect in the economy. Examples of these measures are: reducing
personal income tax and increasing the real property gains tax.
The other strategy is to create a more competitive
environment in the market. The non-competitive market structure, such as
monopoly and oligopoly, are still prevalent in certain industries and has
caused unnecessary hikes in goods and services. The recent increase of cement
prices on Aug 1 by RM1 per bag of 50kg or RM20 per tonne is a case in point,
where the cement market has an oligopoly market structure.
By promoting competition in the market, like
imposing regulations and doing away with protectionist measures, firms are
forced to compete, and this would eventually increase the level of productivity
and efficiency. As a result, not only would prices go down, but wage rates
would go up.
With regard to the second aim, that is, in an
effort to transform the economy to become a developed and high-income country,
first of all, a very fundamental question needs to be asked: is becoming a
high-income economy equivalent to transforming the economy? Well, it may be,
but it certainly is not identical. This is just a transitional process and not
exactly transforming the economy.
Transforming the economy must mean that the
following issues are being addressed convincingly: money politics, corruption,
cronyism, nepotism, favouri-tism, leakages, abuse of power, market inefficiency
and unequal distribution of wealth.
To transform the economy, it requires more than
just achieving the numbers and statistics targeted.
Therefore, measures and strategies on structural
and institutional reforms are needed in the 2013 Budget to really transform the
economy. Towards this end, it is timely for the government to reconsider again
the setting up of the Equal Opportunities Commission that was proposed in the
New Economic Model Part I blueprint. This commission can promote inclusiveness
in the economy, eventually enhancing Malaysia's global competitiveness.
In addition, the 2013 Budget needs to further
detail the six strategic reform initiatives introduced with a specific
objective of enhancing Malaysia's competitiveness level. Besides this, other
initiatives need to be introduced such as strengthening the regulatory
framework, advocating transparency and accountability, introducing an open
tender system, reducing barriers of market entry and democratising the access
of information.
The other issue is about tax reforms. The 2013
Budget cannot be silent when it comes to the Goods and Services Tax (GST), a
broad-based tax system which can enhance government revenue in future.
I am not expecting the government to introduce the
GST next year, but the government should at least give a clear time-frame on
when it is going to be put in place to substitute the current Sales and
Services Tax (or SST) system.
In transforming the economy to become a developed
and high-income country, the 2013 Budget must reflect the spirit and
aspirations of Vision 2020, as outlined by former prime minister Tun Dr
Mahathir Mohamad in February 1992, which is to make Malaysia a united nation, with
a confident Malaysian society, infused by strong moral and ethical values,
living in a society that is democratic, liberal and tolerant, caring,
economically just and equitable, progressive and prosperous, and in full
possession of an economy that is competitive, dynamic, robust and resilient.
In analysing the budget, it is impossible to detach
its relationship with the timing of the 13th general election which must be
called before April next year.
Therefore, I would predict the budget to be an
election budget, but hope that the measures will be less populist.
Irwan Shah Zainal Abidin,
Universiti Utara Malaysia, Sintok,
Kedah