Inflationary pressures seen rising this year

Publication: NST

Date of publication: Feb 19, 2013

Section heading: Business Times

Page number: 003

Byline / Author: By Rupa Damodaran

KUALA LUMPUR: INFLATIONARY pressures in Malaysia, which remained benign last year, are expected to step up this year on stronger domestic demand in the second half of the year.

A Business Times poll expects the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the official barometer used to measure the inflation level, to grow by an average 2.4 per cent, from 1.6 per cent last year.

For January, they expect the CPI to record a 1.25 per cent growth from 1.2 per cent in December and the lowest since February 2010.

The Statistics Department will release the details tomorrow.

HSBC Bank expects another benign inflation reading, with the lowest print since December 2009.

Core inflation (minus food basket) will likely be stable, with a projected growth of 1.2 per cent this year.

Gundy Cahyadi of OCBC Bank said inflation is likely to tick higher in the second half of the year on the back of the strong domestic demand and partly due to the base effects.

"Price expectations could be on an upward trajectory amid anticipation that there may be some revision in administered prices and the GST this year."

Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects inflation to continue to remain benign in January. It said the Chinese New Year holidays, which fell in January last year and is in February this year, has led to a higher base in terms of comparison.

"Inflation may inch higher only in February on food and restaurant prices as a result."

CITI also said the CPI in January is likely stabilised at 1.2 per cent year-on-year due to the Chinese New Year base effects from last year.

"Going forward, we expect inflation to average 1.7 per cent this year, picking up to 1.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent in the second half of the year.

"Our inflation forecasts incorporate two RON95 fuel price cuts of 10 sen in June and December after elections and some spillovers from stronger domestic demand, a narrowing output gap, and possibly minimum wages."

Nilai rasional janji pendidikan percuma

ARKIB : 09/02/2013

LABIS 8 Feb. - Pelaksanaan pengajian tinggi secara percuma yang dijanjikan pembangkang perlu dinilai secara rasional oleh rakyat.

Ketua Biro Profesional Muda MCA, Datuk Chua Tee Yong berkata, kajian daripada segala aspek perlu dilakukan termasuk membuat perbandingan dengan negara luar sebelum menerimanya.

"Memang negara maju seperti Norway dan Denmark memberikan pendidikan tinggi secara percuma kepada rakyatnya tetapi turut mengenakan cukai tinggi sehingga 47 peratus bagi cukai persendirian dan 23 peratus cukai barangan dan perkhidmatan (GST).

"Australia yang kaya sumber galian serta maju turut mengenakan cukai persendirian pada kadar 46 peratus dan GST tujuh peratus berbanding 26 peratus kadar tertinggi cukai persendirian yang pernah dikenakan oleh Malaysia," katanya selepas merasmikan bangunan baharu Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan Cina (SJKC) Pekan Air Panas, di sini baru-baru ini.

Menurut Tee Yong, kerajaan memberi pendidikan percuma di peringkat sekolah rendah dan menengah selain pelbagai kemudahan serta tawaran biasiswa kepada penuntut universiti dengan contoh terdekat, pembinaan SJKC dan SJK Tamil di Parlimen Labis yang membabitkan kos RM40 juta dari tahun 2008 hingga 2011.

Sementara itu, beliau yang juga Ahli Parlimen Labis turut meminta penduduk yang layak memohon Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia (BR1M) 2.0 tetapi masih belum berbuat demikian agar segera mengunjungi kaunter disediakan di Pejabat MCA Labis dan Pejabat Daerah Segamat.

"Permohonan juga boleh dibuat melalui laman web Lembaga Hasil Dalam Negeri (LHDN).

"Bagi penerima yang gagal menuntut baucer ketika pembayaran fasa pertama baru-baru ini, boleh mengambil baucar masing-masing pada 14 dan 15 Februari ini di Pejabat Daerah Segamat pada waktu pejabat," katanya.

Artikel Penuh: http://www.utusan.com.my/utusan/Politik/20130209/po_08/Nilai-rasional-janji-pendidikan-percuma#ixzz2WdAubyEJ
© Utusan Melayu (M) Bhd 

Kerajaan belum laksana sistem GST

Publication: BH

Date of publication: Feb 5, 2013

Section heading: Main Section

Page number: 032

? Adakah pelaksanaan Cukai Barangan dan Perkhidmatan (GST) oleh kerajaan pada masa depan akan membebankan rakyat terutama golongan berpendapatan rendah dan sederhana.

L Muniandy

Keramat, Kuala Lumpur

! Mengambil kira prinsip `rakyat didahulukan` kerajaan tidak akan melaksanakan sistem itu sekarang. Sebenarnya, GST tidak memudaratkan rakyat kerana menerusinya kerajaan menyediakan beberapa bantuan kepada rakyat seperti tidak mengenakan cukai bagi beberapa barangan keperluan asas.

Pelaksanaan GST dilihat dalam konteks pengurangan cukai korporat selaras pandangan beberapa perunding cukai yang menjelaskan Malaysia mampu melaksanakan sistem itu jika tiada masalah membabitkan kelembapan ekonomi.

Namun, kerajaan tidak terburu-buru melaksanakan GST walaupun menerima maklum balas positif hasil rundingan pelbagai pihak.

Walaupun proses rundingan berhubung cadangan pelaksanaan GST masih dilakukan, kerajaan belum membuat keputusan sama ada ia akan dilaksanakan atau sebaliknya.

Kerajaan mahu perbincangan itu terus diteliti dan maklumat mengenainya disebarkan kepada rakyat supaya mereka tahu serta faham sebelum pelaksanaan dijalankan.

Datuk Seri Ahmad Husni Hanadzlah

Menteri Kewangan Kedua

Sukar berkata tidak

Publication: BM

Date of publication: Feb 3, 2013

Section heading: Kembara

Page number: 004

Byline / Author: Oleh Nor Afzan Mohamad Yusof

KEMBARA di Itali, turut membuahkan rasa bangga di hati. Bangga lantaran kerana kebanyakan rakyat Itali yang ditemui penulis memang tahu serta memuji keindahan Malaysia.

Paling tidak dapat lupakan apabila ada yang menyatakan `Malaysia is a very good muslim country'. Dari peniaga jalanan hinggalah ke butik ternama.

Memikirkan tinggi kadar tukaran wang antara RM ke Euro, menyebabkan cara berbelanja perlu dilakukan secara berhati-hati. Tetapi apabila berada di Itali, mustahil untuk berkata, tidak!

Memang itulah kebiasaannya. Apabila bercadang hendak ke negara `mahal' sama ada untuk tugasan atau melancong, sudah tanamkan tekad untuk tidak mahu beli-belah.

Itu sebelum pergi lagi. Apabila sudah berada di negara yang dikunjungi, soal harga mahal atau kadar tukaran mata wang yang tinggi macam dilupakan.

Apatah lagi untuk membeli produk sinonim di Itali seperti barangan kulit serta jenama besarnya yang sudah melakar sejarah panjang seperti Bvlgari atau Furla. Secara umum, produk tempatan boleh didapati dengan harga 50 peratus lebih rendah berbanding membeli produk sama di ibu kota.

Ternyata kehebatan produk tempatan Itali memang setanding dengan keunggulan bangunan sejarah dan peninggalan tamadun Rome yang dikagumi di seluruh dunia.

GST untungkan pelancong

Sejak hari pertama menjejak kaki ke Itali, pemandu pelancong, Damien Mok sudah pun mengingatkan, supaya tidak rambang mata membeli di butik, sekitar Milan atau Venice kerana lawatan pada hari terakhir ke Rome, rombongan kami akan dibawa ke Serravalle Designer Outlet (SDO) iaitu lokasi berbaloi untuk membeli barangan berjenama pada tawaran potongan harga sehingga 70 peratus.

SDO terletak di Castel Romano Roma, Rome, Itali mengambil masa kirakira 50 minit perjalanan menaiki bas dari Milan. Premis pertama dan terbesar di Itali itu, dibuka sejak 2000.

Sememangnya ia lubuk barangan pereka ternama. Lebih 180 butik tersedia dalam kawasan seluas 40,000 meter persegi. Luas seluruh kawasan adalah 200,000 meter persegi.

Bermula dengan ikon jenama Prada hinggalah ke menjadi kegilaan ramai seperti Moschino, harga ditawarkan amat berpatutan. Kunjungan berkumpulan mendapat diskaun tambahan lagi, antara 5 hingga 15 peratus. Sebenarnya di Itali saja ada empat lagi cawangan sama, SDO paling besar.

Landskap dengan binaan seni bina klasik Itali, diuruskan Kumpulan McArthurGlen, sebuah syarikat pembangunan Eropah yang membangunkan 13 pusat sama di Great Britain, Perancis dan Austria.

Tidak dinafikan tanda harga rendah, menjadi dorongan pembeli mudah terpedaya. Di butik Prada, umpamanya, kebanyakan beg tangan boleh didapati serendah 400 euro, seolaholah harganya cuma RM400. Tetapi tetap berbaloi, kerana produk sama mencecah hampir RM8,000, di Malaysia.

Skim cukai barangan dan perkhidmatan (GST) pula memberi lebih keuntungan kepada pelancong. Butik kegemaran ramai ini memberi had belian tidak melebihi 2,000 euro seorang atau kirakira RM8,000

DESTINASI MENARIK

Rome

Jalanan sepanjang 5 kilometer sekitar `Trevi Fountain' atau pancuran air yang menjadi lambang kota ini, turut dipenuhi butik berjenama. Menariknya, sekiranya rajin berjalan, banyak butik ternama menyediakan potongan harga menarik. Tinggalan sejarah bersama seni bina mengagumkan, menjadikan pengalaman di sini sukar dilupakan

Venice

Menyusuri `Grand Canal' menaiki gondola melengkapi percutian ke Itali. Bagaimanapun ia juga bergantung kepada nasib. Kalau air naik, operasi boleh jadi tergendala.

Antara sebab ia popular kerana terusan ini menjadi pengangkutan utama digunakan sejak 1800 dulu. Pengalaman menaikinya, bagi sesetengah orang, seperti saya mungkin biasa saja.

'Gondolier' atau pendayung sampan adalah satu pekerjaan dihormati. Untuk menjadi gondolier, seseorang itu perlu menduduki kursus selama dua tahun. Kaca Murano antara produk terkenal di sini. Dari Grand Canal ke kilang Murano, mengambil masa berjalan kaki selama 10 minit. Terkenal dek pembuatan halus dan berseni, satu set pinggan mangkuk boleh mencecah puluhan ribu ringgit.

Florence

Jolokan syurga barangan kulit. Premis kecil berhampiran Santa Maria del Fiore (juga dikenali sebagai Duomo), sebuah gereja lama tinggalan era Renaissance. Bagi peminat produk kulit seperti beg dan pakaian tanpa jenama, ia mudah didapati di sepanjang laluan berhampiran, menyediakan beraneka produk kulit bermutu tanpa jenama pada harga serendah Euro50 (RM200). Sungguhpun ramai peniaga jalanan (rata-rata berkulit hitam), membawa beg berjenama tetapi berhati-hati kerana ia adalah palsu.

Verona

Kota dipenuhi aura cinta Romeo dan Juliet oleh William Shakespear. Patung Juliet bukan saja menjadi lokasi mengambil gambar tetapi, menurut kepercayaan, sekiranya ingin menemui cinta, sentuh bahagian payu dara patung berkenaan. Kalau ingin `menyelami' cinta Juliet, rumahnya juga tersedia dilawati dengan bayaran tertentu.

Milan

Duomo Square memiliki 135 binaan berbucu tajam daripada batu marmar. Pembinaannya mengambil masa 423 tahun untuk disiapkan. Sebagai dataran utama di Milan dan salah satu tempat pelancongan yang paling terkenal di ibu kota Itali, khususnya perniagaan. Himpunan terkini banyak ditawarkan di sini.

Pierotucci

Kilang kulit, Pierotucci menyediakan peluang untuk mengetahui lebih dekat bagaimana kaedah pembuatan barangan kulit buatan tangan. Fortuna antara produk kegilaan ramai kerana satu koleksi tersedia dalam unit terhad saja.

Banyak jalan kaki

Kembara merentas Itali, atas tajaan bersama agensi pelancongan : Bestour & Travel (M) Sdn Bhd dan pereka futuristik, Hideaki Lim selama 7 hari/5 malam menerusi Etihad yang menawarkan penerbangan setiap hari ke Eropah melalui Abu Dhabi. Kembara ke sini sedikit memenatkan kerana perlu banyak berjalan kaki.

Di Ponte Veccio, jambatan tertua di Florence umpamanya, bas pelancongan dilarang masuk, bagi menjaga seni bina itu daripada gegaran menyebabkan perlu kita berjalan kaki atau menaiki teksi saja. Perjalanan menaiki bas dari satu kota ke kota ke kota yang lain memakan masa sekurang-kurangnya lima jam.

Patuh kepada jadual adalah satu kemestian kerana Itali, menetapkan peraturan khusus di mana bas pelancongan perlu sampai sebelum jam 8 malam ke sesebuah hotel penginapan.

Credit Suisse: Private investment to continue growing

Publication: NST

Date of publication: Jan 21, 2013

Section heading: Business Times

Page number: 002

KUALA LUMPUR: The recent strength in private investment in Malaysia is expected to continue after the general election as further benefits of the Economic Transformation Programme and Strategic Reform Initiatives come through, Credit Suisse said.

The current government is expected to return to power with a smaller majority, the firm added.

"On this basis and assuming Najib remains the Prime Minister, we think the ETP programme and its associated reforms will continue, boosting investment, lifting GDP growth," it said in a report focused on the first quarter outlook for 2013.

Credit Suisse has forecast a five per cent growth for 2013.

It described 2012 as an "excellent year" for Malaysia's economy, buoyed by strong domestic demand growth (offsetting export weakness), a rising private investment and low inflation averaging less than two per cent.

"Judging from one of the key metrics of macroeconomic performance we look at, the difference between real GDP growth and the inflation rate, Malaysia was the best performing country in Asia excluding China."

But it expects the government to be cautious in introducing fiscal consolidation measures such as hiking subsidised fuel prices or introducing broad-based goods and service tax (GST).

It expects the growth-inflation trade-off to remain supportive of the equity market in 2013, pointing to the potential for the market to catch up.

The growth-inflation trade-off measure rebounded from the local trough in 2011, staying in positive territory throughout last year.

The last time there was significant divergence between Malaysia's growth-inflation trade-off measure and the year-on-year growth in the country's equity index was right before the 2004 general election in March.

The gap was closed via a strong rebound in the latter to match the strong macroeconomic performance.

On the outlook for the rest of Asia, Credit Suisse said China is expected to disappoint with its regulations on shadow banking, the trust sector and local government funding will constrain public sector investment, while the private sector continues to struggle.

India's growth will be on the upside while a combination of strong GDP growth and structural fiscal improvements is likely to see the Philippines achieve investment grade status this year.

Likewise, it is optimistic that capex will continue to roar in Thailand in 2013, on the back of surging foreign investment applications, particularly from Japan, and the prospect of stronger government investment.

The Indonesian economy is overheating while its currency faces volatility, it added.

The depreciation of the Japanese yen is likely to impact Korea's exports the most.

In the case of Singapore it noted that inflation which has been outpacing real GDP growth for most of the past two years should unwind in 2013 as well as structural issues relating to the labour market and competitiveness.

Malaysia in the pink of health

Publication: NST

Date of publication: Jan 19, 2013

Section heading: Business Times

Page number: 006

Byline / Author: By Sulaiman Mahbob

I often read the Economist magazine and browse the table on Economic and Financial indicators in its last few pages. There are several key indicators of the economic health of nations worth noting, such as growth in gross domestic product, inflation, industrial production, unemployment, balance of payments, and budget balance.

In the most recent publication, the table showed that 36 out of 43 countries registered budget deficits, with Venezuela showing the largest deficit to the tune of 14.7 per cent of its GDP and Colombia showing the least at 0.1 per cent. In all, about 85 per cent of the listed countries showed negative budgetary position.

Excepting Switzerland, whose data was "not available", only seven nations recorded budget surplus with, expectedly, Norway showing a large surplus of 13.4 per cent of GDP, and Saudi Arabia registering 12.6 per cent. Greece and Spain registered deficits of seven per cent and 7.4 per cent, respectively. India recorded a deficit of six per cent while China, despite its large trade surplus, showed a deficit of more than two per cent.

Developed countries such as the United States, Japan, and Britain, also registered budget deficits to the order of seven per cent, 9.7 per cent, and 7.9 per cent.

In a lighter vein, one may think that the soul of Lord Keynes would not be able to rest in peace in view of the intractability of this budgetary issue, despite the many efforts to contain it.

Observing this scenario, Malaysia's corresponding number in the order of about 4.7 per cent appears tolerable. The government aims to see it continuosly reduced in the medium term. The bulk of the deficit is caused by our high subsidies for energy and social services. Yet, many think that the country is going down the Greek way.

To be sure, budgetary balance is but one measure of a nation's economic health; albeit an important one, of course, as it has few implications. There are several others, and one needs to look at some of these together before making conclusion on a nation's state of the economy. In this regard, Malaysia's GDP numbers, and statistics on unemployment, consumer price index and current account balance indicate that we are nowhere going Greek.

The same table gives unemployment for Greece and Spain in the region of 26 per cent, each. About 50 per cent of youths in Spain are unemployed, according to other sources. The US and the eurozone record unemployment levels of 7.7 per cent and 11.7 per cent, respectively. In comparison, Malaysia's unemployment is about three per cent, a level considered full employment.

In fact, our current account of the Balance of Payments indicating the nation's earning has been in surplus for over one hundred months, making Malaysia a resource-surplus nation. This surplus, however, rests largely with the private sector, which explains our high liquidity and low interest rate environment. This surplus makes up the nation's earning in its transactions with the world. It can finance over nine months of retained imports, much higher than the recommended minimum of about three months. This figure, in addition to our strong financial system, says that Malaysia, as a nation, cannot go the Greek way that easily as some would like us to believe.

At this juncture one needs to be appraised of the causes of our fiscal deficit. First is the difficulty in raising tax revenue, as taxes are unpopular. Second, it is also difficult to reduce operating expenditures (OE) as about 40 per cent of OE is made up of "locked-in" expenditures (salaries, debt payments, charged expenses, grants, and also subsidies). Third is the high level of development expenditure, some of which can be privatised.

This is not to say that we should easily tolerate the deficit. We should aim for a more sustainable level, such as below three per cent in the medium term and attain a surplus in five to 10 years. What worries us is the level of public sector debt, which is now about 54 per cent of GDP, and contingent liability, too. The government's idea of raising revenue by implementing the Goods and Services Tax (GST) has been stalled for quite some time. The private sector should be ready easily given the need for it to be more transparent in its accounting. GST will definitely beef up government revenue.

On the other hand, some public sector allocations can be done away with.

Loans for purchases of vehicles and houses for government staff can be passed on to the banking system. The banking system can accommodate such demand. In addition, some development projects can be undertaken through genuine public-private partnership (PPP) arrangements involving private sector financing and risk-sharing between government and the private sector operators. We have to move fast towards more genuine PPP initiatives to allow for greater private sector involvement. We may need a master plan for PPP to guide future action as we did for privatisation.

The government can also save public money through open bidding system for public procurements and projects, even including privatisation and PPP projects.

However, one often cited concern often cited is the need to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of public expenditures. Let us also revisit this matter and give it a fresh commitment, in addition to a continuing rigorous examination of our fiscal management and planning.

Tan Sri Dr Sulaiman Mahbob is the chairman of Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER)